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Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|