Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.

Serious Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

Multiple figures on the party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.