NFL Play-Off Picture: Key Deciders & Outcomes for the Final Week.
Entering the last weekend of the NFL regular season, only a pair of play-off spots remain open. However, far more is on the line, such as the highly desired top seeds in both conferences and several division titles.
The schedule makers have produced a dramatic finale, with the two remaining postseason places on the line in two direct head-to-head contests.
NFL Postseason Picture as of Week 18
AFC Standings
- Denver Broncos (13-3)
- New England (13-3)
- Jacksonville (12-4)
- Pittsburgh (9-7) / Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
- Houston Texans (11-5)
- L.A. Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo (11-5)
The winner of the Pittsburgh-Baltimore game will claim the #4 spot and a home-field advantage in the wildcard round. Meanwhile, Buffalo and Los Angeles are locked in as wildcard entrants.
Houston need a win coupled with a Jacksonville loss to climb from the fifth seed to the third seed. The Broncos will earn the top seed with a win, but a setback could pave the way for New England or Jacksonville to snatch it.
NFC Standings
- Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
- Chicago Bears (11-5)
- Philadelphia (11-5)
- Carolina (8-8) / Tampa Bay (7-9)
- San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
- L.A. Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay Packers (9-6)
The NFC South is up for grabs by the winner of the Carolina-Tampa Bay game, earning them the #4 position. Notably, the Panthers could still win the divisional title even with a loss, contingent on other results.
The Packers are set at the seventh spot. The highlight, however, is the battle for the NFC's top seed between Seattle and the 49ers, with a first-round bye and home playoff games on the line.
Understanding the NFL Play-Off Format
The top seed in both the AFC and NFC earns a valuable first-round bye and home-field advantage for the duration of the play-offs.
During Wildcard Weekend, the remaining six qualified teams compete: the #2 team hosts the seventh, #3 plays #6, and fourth hosts fifth.
In the second round, the top seeds join the fray, facing the lowest surviving team. The conference championship games are then played at the highest seed, highlighting the immense value of earning that top spot.
Win or Go Home in the AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (01:20, Monday)
This bitter grudge match comes to a head in the last contest of the NFL season. With the AFC North and a postseason spot on the line, this is a true win-or-go-home situation.
The Steelers have been up and down all year, while the Ravens started poorly but are still in the hunt. Player availability may prove critical: Pittsburgh may be without star receiver DK Metcalf, while Baltimore's quarterback their MVP QB is a doubt with a health issue.
Running back the powerful back might emerge as the x-factor for Baltimore in what is set up as a physical, low-scoring struggle.
NFC West Showdown for the Top Seed
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Not only the division title is on the line when Seattle travels to San Francisco. The winner claims the conference's #1 spot and the path to the Super Bowl that it provides.
This matchup features an high-powered San Francisco attack against a dominant Seattle defense. With QB Brock Purdy came back, the 49ers have been the league's highest scorers. Conversely, the Seahawks' defense is ranked among the best in the NFL.
The Seahawks' QB Sam Darnold needs to cut down on costly turnovers that have haunted him this year. The team that comes out on top earns a huge advantage for the postseason journey.
NFC South: A Race to Stumble Over the Line
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30 Saturday)
Both clubs comes into this contest with strong form. The Buccaneers have lost seven of eight, while the Panthers have missed recent opportunities to clinch the title.
For Carolina it's straightforward: a victory gets them in. The Buccaneers, the situation is more complex. Even with a victory, they require another result from the Falcons-Saints game to claim the division crown.
Three-Way Fight for AFC Supremacy
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00, Sunday)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25, Sunday)
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (21:25, Sunday)
Denver control their destiny for the AFC's top seed. A victory over a L.A. Chargers team expected to sit starters seals it.
If the Broncos lose, the door opens for the New England Patriots. A New England victory combined with a Denver defeat would give the #1 ranking to New England.
Jacksonville are the long shot. They need a win and losses by both Denver and New England to achieve an unlikely rise to the top. More importantly, a Jacksonville defeat could allow them to be overtaken by the Houston Texans in the division standings.
NFL Week 18: Complete Schedule
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
