Foreign Office Advised Regarding Military Action to Overthrow Robert Mugabe

Newly disclosed documents reveal that the UK's diplomatic corps cautioned against British military intervention to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".

Policy Papers Show Considerations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator

Internal documents from the then Prime Minister's government indicate officials considered options on how best to handle the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country descended into turmoil and financial collapse.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.

Policy of Isolation Considered Ineffective

Officials agreed that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was not working, having not managed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Courses considered in the documents included:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the option supported by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from conflicts abroad that changing a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Warnings of Significant Losses and Jurisdictional Barriers

It warned that military intervention would cause heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a severe human and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we assess that no nation in Africa would support any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The document continues: "Nor do we judge that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or join military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Long-Term Strategy Advocated

Blair's foreign policy adviser, a senior official, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We must devise a way of exposing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then subsequently, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a military takeover in 2017, at the age of 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a military coalition to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.