A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
